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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          03/28 07:55

   Cotton Rebounds Ahead of Data 

   After its tumultuous spill yesterday, the cotton market is somewhat 
"gathering itself" ahead of today's potentially impactful reports and the long 
holiday weekend. A lower close today will mark four consecutive lower closing 
weeks for the market. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After its tumultuous spill yesterday, the cotton market is somewhat 
"gathering itself" ahead of today's potentially impactful reports and the long 
holiday weekend. A lower close today will mark four consecutive lower closing 
weeks for the market.

   USDA issues its weekly export sales, with the following results: Net sales 
of Upland totaling 98,200 RB for 2023-24 were up 8% from the previous week and 
46 percent from the prior four-week average.

   Increases primarily for Turkey (20,500 RB), China (13,400 RB, including 
decreases of 2,000 RB), Indonesia (12,100 RB, including 300 RB switched from 
Vietnam), Bangladesh (10,900 RB, including decreases of 6,000 RB), and Vietnam 
(10,700 RB, including 900 RB switched from Japan, 700 RB switched from South 
Korea, and 400 RB switched from China), were offset by reductions for Portugal 
(2,700 RB), South Korea (700 RB), and Pakistan (600 RB).

   Net sales of 72,200 RB for 2024/2025 were primarily for Bangladesh (18,500 
RB), Turkey (17,600 RB), Honduras (11,400 RB), Guatemala (8,300 RB), and 
Vietnam (6,900 RB). Exports of 360,700 RB were down 9% from the previous week, 
but up 12% from the prior four-week average.

   The destinations were primarily China (146,300 RB), Pakistan (59,400 RB), 
Vietnam (59,300 RB), Turkey (14,700 RB), and Bangladesh (13,900 RB). Net sales 
of Pima totaling 13,500 RB for 2023-24 were up noticeably from the previous 
week and the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for India (6,600 
RB), China (4,400 RB), Pakistan (1,400 RB), Brazil (400 RB), and Colombia (300 
RB). Exports of 4,500 RB were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 2% 
from the prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily China (1,400 
RB), India (1,100 RB), Pakistan (900 RB), and Thailand (900 RB).

   For today's intentions report, the average industry estimate stands at 
10.906 million acres, with a range of guesses spanning from 10.24 million to 
11.30. USDA's Outlook Forum in February had the number at 11.0 million. For 
some context, acres were 10.23 million in 2023-24, and 13.75 million in 
2022/2023.

   On Friday, the Labor Department will release its PCE inflation index. This 
report monitors certain consumer purchasing patterns and is closely watched by 
Federal Reserve analysts. The core PCE index is seen rising 0.3% in February, 
which would keep the annual pace at 2.8%.

   For today, chart support for July Cotton stands at 91.00 cents and 90.20 
cents, with 92.60 cents and 93.10 cents as resistance. This morning's estimated 
volume stands at 4,712 contracts. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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