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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          02/19 11:55

   Traders Continue to Send Mixed Messages in the Livestock Complex

   Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but asking prices are noted in the 
South at $202 to $204.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is again trading mixed as the marketplace lacks 
consensus from traders who are quick to back away and let the contracts turn 
lower. No cash cattle trade has developed yet and it's likely that trade will 
be delayed for another day or two. March corn is down 4 cents per bushel and 
March soybean meal is up $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 168.41 
points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The back and forth nature of the live cattle market's game of cat and mouse, 
where one day the market closes lower to then be followed by mild technical 
support the next day, is shaping up to play true again in Wednesday's market. 
Besides the soon-to-expire February live cattle contracts, the rest of the live 
cattle contracts are trading mostly from $0.50 to $0.77 higher as traders seem 
to be looking around for one another's consensus as to whether or not enough 
immediate downside pressure has been inflicted upon the market. In the spot 
April contract, the market is within only $2.00 of its 100-day moving average, 
which remains a critical threshold to continue to monitor. April live cattle 
are up $0.75 at $194.77, June live cattle are up $0.57 at $190.97 and August 
live cattle are up $0.50 at $189.32. No cash cattle trade has developed yet, 
but asking prices are noted in the South at $202 to $204, and the North has yet 
to list their asking prices. Trade will likely be delayed another day or two.

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.76 ($314.01) and select up $0.64 
($304.35) with a movement of 77 loads (54.67 loads of choice, 9.21 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 13.21 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Unfortunately, the momentum that pushed the feeder cattle complex sharply 
higher throughout all of Tuesday's market seems to have dissipated as the 
complex is now trading lower. The market is currently nearing a resistance 
level (at $270), which is imposing some technical pressure, but otherwise, 
traders seem to be waiting to see if any fundamental support develops and helps 
encourage higher trade. March feeders are down $1.12 at $268.60, April feeders 
are down $0.92 at $268.17 and May feeders are down $0.52 at $266.80.

LEAN HOGS:

   With morning pork cutout values lower, and pressure noted in Tuesday's 
closing cutout price as well -- immense downward pressure has overtaken the 
lean hog complex. April lean hogs are down $3.00 at $90.20, June lean hogs are 
down $2.97 at $102.27 and July lean hogs are down $2.50 at $103.20. With the 
recent change in direction, the market has come under pressure and once again 
fallen below the resistance level at $92.00 in the spot April contract. In 
terms of what's driving the carcass price's decline on a per-individual cut 
basis, the tremendous $10.25 fall of the belly is to blame.

   The projected lean hog index for 2/14/2025 is up $0.98 at $89.75, and the 
actual index for 2/13/2025 is up $0.71 at $88.77. Hog prices on the Daily 
Direct Morning Hog Report average $92.77, ranging from $87.50 to $94.00 on 
5,649 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.33. Pork cutouts total 147.24 
loads with 131.54 loads of pork cuts and 15.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout 
values: down $3.10, $96.37.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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