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DTN Closing Cotton 07/28 13:49
Cotton Gives Up Gains to Finish Lower
After flirting with a classic counter-Tuesday session earlier, the cotton
market found a way to regroup and trade positively.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
After flirting with a classic counter-Tuesday session earlier, the cotton
market found a way to regroup and trade positively. Likely, falling crude oil
and strong Chicago grains helped, but the veracity of Texas crop remains a
question. Also, the internal auctions of China's state reserves have been
proceeding well. Yet, late in the day, that old bullish-Monday bearish-Tuesday
curse emerged, toppling the market and bringing it lower.
Today, the Federal Reserve is meeting to discuss U.S. interest rates, under
its new chairman. That decision will be publicly conveyed at 2 p.m. EDT
Wednesday. Currently, there is a 66% chance that the central bank will not do
anything. However, some governors would like to hike rates immediately.
Crude oil continues to fall as the U.S.-Iran hostilities remain paused. Yet,
there are ongoing talks between Iran and Oman with Saudi Arabia concerning the
Strait of Hormuz. Supposedly, President Trump's massive attack on Iran remains
on the table.
This Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, USDA will issue its weekly export sales
report. Highlights from the previous report included sales of 51,287 bales for
the 2025/26 marketing year and 16,146 bales for the 2026/2027 season. The
combined seasonal summary was 67,433 bales. Although that amount exceeded
38,435 bales from the previous week. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached
107% of USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 114% for this point in
the marketing year. Shipments totaled 276,313 bales, up from 214,893 bales the
previous week.
On Friday, the CFTC updated its Commitment of Traders data. The results
showed that the managed-money funds bought some 3,500 futures, further swelling
their net-long position to 53,209 contracts.
For Tuesday, December closed at 80.53 cents, down 35 points; March 2027
finished at 82.11 cents, minus 36 points; and July 2027 settled at 83.16 cents,
off 45 points. Tuesday's estimated volume was 34,333 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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