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DTN Closing Cotton 11/24 13:32
Cotton Struggles Seasonally
The cotton market was timidly higher today as traders weighed the influences
of delivery, harvest and net-short speculators.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market was timidly higher today as traders weighed the influences
of delivery, harvest and net-short speculators. Also, interest rates concerns
were evident in the financial markets as well.
Weekly export sales would be seen Tuesday and Friday, as USDA is attempting
to catch up with data delayed by the government shutdown. Last week's data
showed a net sales number of 198,985 bales for the week ending Oct. 2. This was
the second week in a row they were around 200,000 bales. Sales have only
reached 39% of USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 56% for this point
in the marketing year.
December cotton is in delivery. Thus far some 143 notices have been tendered
against the spot month. The process runs through Dec. 7.
After comments by a certain Federal Reserve governor, the odds have jumped
for a December interest rate reduction to 70%. The prior expectations were
about 30%. Still, the U.S. dollar was higher today.
Last Friday, the CFTC issued its Commitment of Traders Report. The data
showed that the managed-money funds had net sold some 11,586 contracts, pushing
their overall net-short position to 76,326. Their current record stands at
79,986.
This afternoon, USDA will issue its weekly Crop Progress report. Roughly,
the crop should be near 80% gathered.
This Thursday, the market will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. In
addition, there will be a delayed opening on Friday, with trading starting at 8
a.m. EST.
The 6- to 10-day forecast (Nov. 29-Dec. 3) shows much-below normal
temperatures across the upper end of the Texas Panhandle. The Delta and the
Southeast look to be above normal. Rain-wise, Texas and the Northern Delta look
to have above-normal opportunities, while the Southeast appear to have just a
slight chance for rain.
For Monday, March 2026 closed at 64.00 cents, plus 15 points; July settled
at 66.34 cents, up 16 points; and December 2026 ended at 67.64 cents, up 5
points. Monday's estimated volume was 33,815 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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