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DTN Closing Cotton 08/11 13:32
Cotton Squares Ahead of WASDE Report
The cotton market traded on both sides unchanged in Tuesday's session.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market traded on both sides unchanged in Tuesday's session.
Traders were positioning themselves for USDA's August WASDE report. In
addition, participants will also see a key CPI (consumer inflation) number
Wednesday.
For that WASDE update, the average trade expectation for U.S. 2026/27
production is 13.54 million bales, down from the 13.70 million bales seen in
the July update. Domestic exports are expected around 12.30 million bales,
unchanged from July, likely resulting in carryout of 3.86 million bales versus
the 4.10 million bales reported in July. World production is expected to come
in at 116.65 million bales versus 117.26 million bales in July. World ending
stocks are expected at 71.10 million bales against July's 71.22 million bales.
The data is out at noon EDT.
In addition, USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA) will issue its crop acreage
update Wednesday. This FSA acreage update reflects the certified acres, which
were due on July 15. Its data may offer the market a better read on
producer-reported planted acreage.
Also on Wednesday, fresh CPI numbers will be published. The current
estimates are: Headline CPI: +0.1% to +0.2% MoM, with consensus around +0.2%.
Core CPI: +0.2% MoM is the broad expectation. Headline YoY: around 3.4%, Core
YoY: around 2.8%. Supposedly, a 0.2% print would be broadly in line; 0.3%+
would likely be viewed as hot, while 0.1% would be a meaningful downside
surprise.
On Thursday, USDA will issue fresh export sales numbers. Last week's data
saw the final 2025 sales number of 55,600 bales, a marketing-year-low. Net
sales for 2026 were 242,000 bales sold, with 222,800 bales shipped, off 5%
weekly.
The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (Aug. 16-20) shows above to very much
above-normal temperatures for the U.S. Cotton Belt. Rain wise, West Texas
should see near-normal chances, while East Texas, the U.S. Delta and the
Southeast may anticipate below-normal opportunities. The U.S. Cotton planted
area stands at 41% drought status.
For Tuesday, December closed at 84.39 cents, up 53 points; March 2027
finished at 86.24 cents, plus 52 points; and July 2027 settled at 86.74 cents,
20 points higher. Tuesday's estimated volume was 44,312 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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