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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 12/11 07:45
Cotton Tiptoes Sideways
Since posting what many traders believe was the seasonal low on Nov. 21, the
cotton market has taken a definite sideways path.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
Since posting what many traders believe was the seasonal low on Nov. 21, the
cotton market has taken a definite sideways path. Its trading ranges have been
narrow, and at times, the volumes have been low. Traders are trying to assess
the market's pricing path into 2026.
As expected, the Federal Reserve did lower interest rates by one-quarter
Wednesday. That makes its Fed Funds rate at 3.50%, but also there were "hawkish
comments" concerning inflation, implying less reductions in the future.
USDA released another catch-up export sales report, covering the period from
Nov. 13. Today's tabulations showed sales for 2025/2026 to be 187,600 bales.
For the 2026/2027 season, sales were 1,800 bales. The top buyers were Vietnam
(61,000) and Turkey (59,700). China was in for 5,700 bales. Weekly shipments
tallied 113,200 bales.
Wednesday afternoon, the CFTC issued another back-logged Commitment of
Trader report. Its data showed that the managed-money funds had bought in some
3,400 positions, reducing the total bearish position to 60,329 contracts. There
will be another report out Friday.
Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 63.50 cents and 63.00 cents,
with resistance hovering about 64.50 cents and 65.00 cents. Thursday morning's
estimated opening volume is 6,470 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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