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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 11/11 07:24
Cotton Awaits Exports, COT Update
Cotton edges higher as traders await exports, COT amid neutral USDA report.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market is slightly up Wednesday morning in the aftermath of its
neutral to negative crop data update. USDA barely lowered the U.S. production
and hardly moved the needle at all on the world categories. Traders are now
awaiting Friday's exports and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
summary.
Since it's Veterans Day, many agencies of the federal government are closed,
along with the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Postal System. However, U.S.
commodities markets, including ICE Cotton, will trade a normal day.
Goldman Sachs Index, which is the largest spec long-only fund, continues to
roll positions forward from December into March during its five-day swap. As a
result, March open interest was up 4,300 standing at 129,820 contracts.
December Cotton will enter its delivery period Nov. 23.
Export sales are delayed until this Friday due to the observance of Veterans
Day. Highlights from last week's report had net sales of 277,522 bales for the
2026/2027 marketing year. With that, cumulative sales have reached 51% of
USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 58% for this point in the
marketing year. Shipments totaled 137,782 bales, which was a marketing-year low
number.
Also, on Friday the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders (COT) data.
Last week saw the managed funds sold 3,042 positions, further reducing their
net long carry to 53,148 contracts.
Crude Oil is higher Wednesday after posting a two-month low last week.
Traders remain in limbo between hopes for a de-escalation in the Iran war and
concerns about ongoing attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday,
data showed that 37 ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding
waterways in October, the highest monthly total since the start of the war.
For Wednesday, close-in support for December Cotton stands at 77.90 cents
and 77.10 cents, with resistance around 80.00 cents and 80.50 cents. This
morning's estimated volume is 10,640 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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