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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 01/15 07:40
Cotton Labors Sideways to Lower
The cotton market continues to trace a sideways, congesting pattern on the
charts.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market continues to trace a sideways, congesting pattern on the
charts. Traders are awaiting any fresh price moving influences that might
emerge.
Wednesday's U.S. retail sales report for November showed total seasonally
adjusted sales up 0.6% from October and up 3.3% year-over-year, as the holiday
shopping season gained momentum. Clothing and accessories stores again
outperformed many categories with an approximate 0.9% monthly gain, reflecting
stronger apparel demand during early holiday shopping.
USDA issued its weekly export sales report Thursday morning with the
following data:
Net sales of Upland totaling 339,700 RB for 2025/2026--a marketing-year
high--were up noticeably from the previous week and up 89 percent from the
prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (127,400 RB, including
100 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 100 RB), China (57,200 RB),
Pakistan (48,000 RB, including 100 RB switched from China and decreases of 300
RB), Indonesia (25,200 RB), and Bangladesh (14,500 RB), were offset by
reductions for Japan (100 RB). Net sales of 10,100 RB for 2026/2027 were
reported for Costa Rica (7,200 RB), El Salvador (2,600 RB), and Pakistan (300
RB). Exports of 156,100 RB were up 1 percent from the previous week and 8
percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to
Vietnam (56,200 RB), Pakistan (24,900 RB), China (18,200 RB), Turkey (13,500
RB), and Indonesia (10,200 RB).
On Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders information. Last
Friday's numbers showed the managed-money funds had net-bought some 1,300
positions, reducing their net-carry to 47,700 contracts.
Traders are still waiting to see if the U.S. Supreme Court validates the
president's tariffs. Supposedly, a ruling will be announced soon. However, if
the tariffs are invalidated, the Trump administration says it has other "legal
options" to keep them in place.
Chart support for March cotton stands at 64.60 cents and 64.00 cents, with
resistance hovering about 65.25 cents and 65.75 cents. Thursday morning's
estimated opening volume is 11,105 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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