| |
DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 07/09 07:42
Cotton Technically Retreats
The cotton market gave back a portion of its early-week gains ahead of
Thursday's export-sales report and Friday's supply-demand update.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market gave back a portion of its early-week gains ahead of
Thursday's export-sales report and Friday's supply-demand update. Traders are
also understandably nervous holding some positions given the renewed fighting
in Iran.
USDA just released its weekly export sales report with the following numbers:
"Net sales of Upland totaling 66,400 RB for 2025/2026 were up 36 percent
from the previous week, but down 49 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Increases primarily for Vietnam (23,500 RB, including 800 RB switched from
South Korea and decreases of 4,900 RB), India (23,400 RB, including decreases
of 100 RB), Mexico (10,400 RB), Bangladesh (4,000 RB, including decreases of
400 RB), and China (3,300 RB, including 1,100 RB switched from Hong Kong), were
offset by reductions primarily for Pakistan (3,300 RB), Switzerland (1,800 RB),
Hong Kong (1,100 RB), South Korea (800 RB), and Nicaragua (100 RB). Net sales
of 87,000 RB for 2026/2027 primarily for Vietnam (48,700 RB), Turkey (30,800
RB), Japan (2,400 RB), Indonesia (2,400 RB), and Ecuador (1,600 RB). Exports of
230,100 RB were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 14 percent from
the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (85,400
RB), Pakistan (42,800 RB), Turkey (23,900 RB), Bangladesh (21,200 RB), and
Mexico (18,400 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 2,600 RB for 2025/2026 were up
noticeably from the previous week, but down 42 percent from the prior 4-week
average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam (1,300 RB), India (700 RB),
Bangladesh (200 RB), Turkey (200 RB), and Indonesia (200 RB). Total net sales
of 17,500 RB for 2026/2027 were for India. Exports of 10,600 RB were down 57
percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average.
The destinations were primarily to India (8,300 RB), Peru (700 RB), Pakistan
(400 RB), Thailand (300 RB), and Turkey (300 RB)."
Thursday July cotton will expire on the close. Its final settlement could
adversely impact cotton's daily continuation charts with a switch-of-contract
gap.
The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (July 14-18) shows above to above-normal
temperatures for the Delta and the Southeast, while West Texas will see normal
readings. Rain-wise, the breadth of the U.S. Cotton Belt will have increased
chances -- better than normal -- for rain opportunities.
Chart support for December cotton stands at 79.14 cents and 78.25 cents,
with resistance around 81.30 cents and 82.50 cents. Thursday morning's
estimated volume is 14,814 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
Your local weather forecast from DTN can be sent to your email every morning free through DTN Snapshot.
|
|
