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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 05/21 07:43
Cotton Lower Thursday on Seasonal Tug
After posting an 88.08 cent high on May 13, the cotton market has been in
abeyance to its seasonal trend, which typically calls for a high during the
March-April-May window.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
After posting an 88.08 cent high on May 13, the cotton market has been in
abeyance to its seasonal trend, which typically calls for a high during the
March-April-May window. Traders now will assess export sales, the CFTC update,
and weather after the Memorial holiday.
USDA just released its weekly export sales data with the following numbers:
"Net sales of Upland totaling 131,800 RB for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from
the previous week and up 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases
primarily for Pakistan (65,300 RB, including decreases of 200 RB), Vietnam
(26,100 RB, including 4,500 RB switched from China, 900 RB switched from South
Korea, 100 RB switched Japan, and decreases of 4,400 RB), Turkey (20,100 RB,
including decreases of 100 RB), Malaysia (5,300 RB), and China (3,400 RB), were
offset by reductions for Peru (1,100 RB) and South Korea (900 RB). Net sales of
216,000 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Pakistan (206,100 RB), Indonesia
(4,500 RB), Turkey (4,500 RB), and Mexico (900 RB). Exports of 289,400 RB were
unchanged from the previous week, but down 11 percent from the prior four-week
average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (110,800 RB), Turkey
(28,700 RB), Pakistan (26,000 RB), Mexico (22,100 RB), and Bangladesh (21,200
RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 9,500 RB for 2025/2026 were up 2 percent from
the previous week, but down 52 percent from the prior four-week average
Increases were primarily for India (7,600 RB), Pakistan (1,100 RB), Peru (500
RB), Thailand (200 RB), and Vietnam (100 RB). Net sales of 7,700 RB for
2026/2027 were reported for Peru (4,000 RB) and India (3,700 RB). Exports of
9,900 RB were down 18 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the
prior four-week average. Primarily to India (4,600 RB), China (3,200 RB), Costa
Rica (1,700 RB), Pakistan (300 RB), and Mexico (100 RB)."
Option expiration for the July contract is Friday, June 12, or 22 days
hence. Then spot July delivery commences on June 24, running through July 9.
On Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders
data. Last week, the managed-money funds bought some 8,300 positions, lifting
their net-long carry to 58,000-plus. The all-time bullish record, from 2018,
stands at 108,788 contracts.
The 6- to 10-day forecast (May 26-May 30) shows normal temperature readings
for Texas, but slightly above-normal readings for the U.S. Delta and the
Southeast. Rainwise, Texas shows much-above normal chances, while the Delta and
the Southeast also show above-normal opportunities.
Chart support for December cotton stands at 80.30 cents and 79.30 cents,
with resistance around 81.85 cents and 83.30 cents. Thursday morning's
estimated volume is 25,750 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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