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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 09/23 07:21
Cotton Has "Weak-Knees"
Cotton prices are trickling lower as the 2026 harvest gets underway and many
thinking there are too many hopes placed on the Trump/Xi meeting.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
After posting a three-cent bullish move on Monday, the cotton market has
done little since but trickle lower. Traders realize that there remains a huge
net-long position held by certain funds, just as the 2026 harvest is unfolding.
Also, there may have been too many "export hopes" placed on the Trump/Xi
meeting.
As mentioned, the long-awaited Trump/Xi trade meeting will take place in
Washington tomorrow. The two leaders will discuss, among many topics, tariffs,
trade, AI, Iran, and Taiwan.
Also on Thursday, USDA will issue its weekly exports-sales. Highlights from
last week included combined seasonal sales of 77,391 bales, versus the previous
total of 76,318 bales sold. For last year, those combined sales were 186,100
bales. Weekly Shipments totaled 142,076 bales, down from the previous 177,774
bales exported.
On Friday, at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders
data. Last week's numbers showed that the managed-money traders were net
sellers of 2,267 contracts. That action reduced their net long carry to 97,903.
Their record stands at 108,788 contracts.
Crude Oil is trading somewhat two-sided this morning after President Trump's
speech, and the side meetings between the U.S. and Iran, at the United Nations
Tuesday. Trump expressed that U.S. officials had a "very good meeting" with
Iran's delegation, which lasted about three hours. Earlier, Trump said that he
had a "big decision" over whether to reach a deal with Tehran or "annihilate"
the country.
For today close-in support for December Cotton stands at 8210 and 8070, with
resistance around 8375 and 8580. This morning's estimated volume is 7,865
contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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