| |
DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 06/18 07:39
Cotton Lower as Traders Eye Arthur
After spiking some 200 points higher Wednesday, traders are watching and
reassessing the potential impact of Tropical Storm Arthur.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
After spiking some 200 points higher Wednesday, traders are watching and
reassessing the potential impact of Tropical Storm Arthur. Although the
southern cotton crop is in an early and vulnerable state, it's not like cotton
bolls are fully open. Additionally, traders want to see Thursday's export
sales, assess the new central bank chairman's style of leadership, and are
squaring positions for a long, three-day holiday weekend.
USDA just released its weekly export sales report with the following data:
"Net sales of Upland totaling 177,100 RB for 2025/2026 were down 15 percent
from the previous week, but up 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Increases primarily for Pakistan (76,600 RB, including decreases of 2,100 RB),
India (39,600 RB, including 4,400 RB switched from Pakistan), Vietnam (21,000
RB, including 1,400 RB switched from South Korea, 500 RB switched from Japan,
and decreases of 1,500 RB), China (11,400 RB, including decreases of 300 RB),
and Taiwan (7,400 RB), were offset by reductions for Honduras (2,000 RB), South
Korea (1,400 RB), and Japan (1,000 RB). Net sales of 188,400 RB for 2026/2027
were primarily for Vietnam (65,600 RB), Pakistan (39,600 RB), Indonesia (22,500
RB), Malaysia (21,100 RB), and Nicaragua (15,000 RB). Exports of 251,000 RB
were down 16 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior four
week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (66,300 RB), Pakistan
(33,100 RB), Turkey (28,000 RB), Bangladesh (24,500 RB), and China (19,800 RB).
Net sales of Pima totaling 5,500 RB for 2025/2026 were down 28 percent from the
previous week and 14 percent from the prior four-week average. Increases were
primarily for Costa Rica (3,500 RB), Thailand (400 RB), Pakistan (400 RB),
Turkey (400 RB), and Peru (400 RB). Exports of 13,200 RB were down 43 percent
from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior four-week average. The
destinations were primarily to India (6,900 RB), Vietnam (2,300 RB), China
(1,800 RB), Peru (1,300 RB), and Thailand (400 RB)."
The market will be closed Friday for the Juneteenth observance. The ICE
futures will reopen the following Sunday night at 9 p.m. EDT, but likely
certain reports will be pushed back a day.
Crude oil is lower Thursday after President Donald Trump signed a deal with
his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian to end the war in the Middle East.
Also, a report from the International Energy Agency indicated there can easily
be a supply glut of oil next year. However, somewhat clouding the situation,
Trump also told reporters he could resume attacks on Iran if Tehran failed to
honor its commitments.
Chart support for December cotton stands at 78.60 cents and 78.05 cents,
with resistance around 80.50 cents and 81.00 cents. Thursday morning's
estimated volume is 18,209 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For more free DTN information sent right to your email each morning - click here to sign up for DTN Snapshot.
|
|
